We are now nearing the fourth quarter in the run up to the Republican Primary Election in May. Much of the preparation that should have happened before Christmas is only now being done. Remember Sun TSU? “Most wars are won before a battle is fought”. If the three conservative candidates in the Governor’s race had agreed to three debates before the legislative session started, the battlefield today would be very different. I would like to make a few comments:
Ed Humphries will someday be Governor. His skills personally and politically are just now being appreciated. He has learned lessons in politics that legacy candidates have never had to learn. Brad Little and Scott Bedke were born into Idaho political privilege following in the footsteps of family members. They have always enjoyed access to media and Republican Party establishment resources. An advantage that Ed didn’t have and is now learning to leverage. His next run will be helped by his having to attend previously the “school of hard knocks”. Because of that Ed built his campaign from the bottom up. He had to fight for media access, and the media early on controlled his narrative. Ed has turned the media bias against him into a positive. Something Janice has yet to accomplish. Ed Will someday be Governor.
Janice is a brave warrior. She has surrounded herself with sycophants who are friends who have yet to tell her what she needs to hear. She has up to now been ill advised and because she so values loyalty she refuses to change course. Donald Trump values loyalty, but he also fires people. The only way Janice can win is if Trump comes in State and campaigns in Southwest and East Idaho. The other thing that could help Janice and Priscilla would be if Romney, Bush, or Kasich came into our State and campaigned for Little. She has failed to make corruption in State Government the key issue of the campaign. She has failed to link Brad Little to the corruption and collusion that is leading to more not less symbiotic public-private cronyism. She should everyday ask of Brad—are you a Romney or Trump Republican? Priscilla should do the same of Scott Bedke.
Amon Bundy has the most sophisticated and forward-thinking campaign team of anyone. He has defined a strategic objective but has let tactical blunders and a “bull in the China shop” mentality hurt his forward progress. If people could experience his compassion and intellect, and compare that with Brad, they would see the difference between a self-made man, and a bequeathed political operative. Leadership requires experience and when “daddy” leads the way, the opportunity to learn how to lead is never developed. For all the time Brad and Scott have spent in the legislature, they have forgotten that the skills of a First Lieutenant leading a platoon, are far more important than the bureaucratic experience of negotiating the needs of career bureaucrats and lobbyists.
Conservatives are in a real “pickle” Brad will more likely win with less than 45% of the primary vote. The only way out that I can see is for conservatives to have a well-publicized “Council of War”. Ammon, Ed, and Janice should meet with the goal of winning the primary against Brad or winning the General against Brad. If the combined popularity in a properly administered poll shows that—for example together Ammon, Ed, and Janice could beat Brad, then the two candidates that poll at the bottom should agree to coalesce forces to beat Brad. They should also agree that if the combined forces with one candidate fails to win the primary, the two candidates that lost in the primary will agree to join forces with Ammon to beat Brad in the General. Other people running for State Constitutional offices should agree with the plan—Dorothy Moon, Raul Labrador et al.
The question should ultimately put before all three candidates—”Are you a Republican first or are you a Conservative First”.
Whoever the conservative candidate will be in May or November the corruption of the establishment Republicans needs to be called out. Corruption in Medicine and Education is hurting Idaho families. It is all about families.
Donald Trump, WHERE ARE YOU?