What about the Midterm election? It seems that the topic of daily discussion is all about AI and the midterm elections. So, I decided to ask my AI program to do some research and give me its opinion on how this midterm election may turn out. The first time I asked this question I didn’t qualify who AI should survey so it took information from four polling sources. Nate Silver Forecast, Axios, Generic ballot average and Decision Desk HQ. AI’s prediction using those sources was that Democrats are clear favorites, maybe 80–90% once you allow for some extra polling error. AI said the real uncertainty is whether it’s a narrow majority or a wave, not which party wins.
Not satisfied with its first answer so I posed the question a second time: This time questioned the reliability of AI’s sources and stipulated that I wanted it’s opinion not the opinion of the sources that it quoted. This time the answer was different. AI said In My view: Democrats are more likely than not to win the House, but AI put it nearer 70–75% than the 90%. AI said that it would treat a big Democratic wave as possible but overstated. A close fight for a narrow majority looks more realistic than a rout.
What if the Iran War were to end? I wanted to see how AI was would answer if President Trump were to make one more powerful devastating attack on Iran’s before the election. This would most likely include its infrastructure for a final push to end this war. In this case oil prices would drop precipitously and stabilize. How would this scenario affect the election? AI’s answer was “With a definitive end to the war plus an aggressive rally push, it would become 50–50 scenario. AI said that the outcome would come down to a handful of close districts and which side does better on turnout. I’m still convinced that the polls are not only biased but are also undercounting Republicans.
Does the socialism issue help Republicans? Another issue that I researched with my AI program was the effect of the socialist movement by the democratic party on the mid-terms. It replied that most democratic socialists who won primaries are in safe Democratic seats, like N.Y.C. and Denver, which would not effect any change. Where this did matter is in statewide Senate races and suburban swing districts in states like Michigan, Georgia, Main and Alaska. This is where the “Democrats are going socialist” message can move a few points of moderate, older and suburban voters. But this is not a game changer as even center right strategists frame it as a limited liability in those states. While young voters are the largest group comfortable with socialism it reflects the anger about the cost of housing, healthcare and jobs but these are also the least reliable midterm voters.
Was redistricting under weighted by AI? The answer was yes and here is what it missed. New maps in Texas, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana and Alabama gave Republicans about 16 seats. California and Utah gave Democrats about 6. That’s a net Republican gain of about 10. Virginia’s Democratic map was struck down and Indiana’s Republican map wasn’t enacted. This raises the bar Democrats have to clear in the House.
While house democrats are still favored the margin is smaller as redistricting and the “socialism” message are real advantages for Republicans. However, the Senate is a real toss up of 50-50. If North Carolina flips as Fox now expects, Democrats need three of Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Texas while holding Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia. That’s hard, but no longer far-fetched.
AI’s Most likely single outcome: still a Democratic House and a Republican Senate however, A Republican sweep of both chambers is possible if the polling underestimate appear to be correct. I have said many times both on the Kevin Miller show and in my articles published in the Gem State Patriot that Republicans have been consistently under polled since the 2016 election and when you look at the stats they tell a unique story no one wants to talk about. In 2016 Republicans began to show a pattern of outperforming the polls, however specific numbers are not available for that year. In the 2018 midterm elections, Republicans outperformed their September polling by six points in Iowa and Ohio and surprisingly 8 points in Michigan. In 2020 the trend of under polling continued and in 2024 Republicans outperformed September polls by nine points in Iowa, six points in Ohio and five points in Michigan. This historical pattern raises questions about the reliability of polling data in predicting election outcomes.
If this trend continues: and Trump is effective on his current tour and gets his message out there is a strong potential that republicans could gain significant ground in the upcoming midterms. So, I’m going to stick my old, wrinkled neck out and predict that Republicans will take the house and Senate by a small margin because I believe the alternative would be unacceptable to a majority of Americans. One more thing that most election prognosticators have not factored into the election including AI is the huge amount of money being spent by the Republican party and the 276 million committed by Elon Musk. The election guru’s say that History is the strongest evidence going back to WWII that the democrats will win one or both houses but while history may repeat itself there are exceptions. The House has flipped 7 out of 12 times since WWII while the Senate only flipped 6 times. Trump has been an enigma to political analysts as most of them don’t think out of the box and that is why I believe Republicans will hold both houses and President Trump will complete his mission of “Making America Great Again.”
We will find out what happens in 16 days and “We will Get the Government We Deserve.”
