Is Idaho Still the “Reddest of the Red States”?

By the Numbers, Yes.

Using raw partisan metrics, Idaho remains one of the most Republican states in America. It ranks as the 5th most Republican state with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+18. Trump won Idaho with 63.8% in 2020. Republicans have held a trifecta (Governor, House, Senate) for 31 consecutive years. The last Democratic governor left office in 1995. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state was LBJ in 1964. (1)But there’s a problem with that metric as being “Republican” and being “conservative” are no longer the same thing in Idaho.

The Budget Has More Than Doubled: Numbers don’t lie. Idaho’s state budget has doubled in the last 8 years from approx. 7 billion to over 14 billion including the federal funds contribution which is currently about 5.5 billion. While the top income tax rate has been cut from 7.4% to a flat 5.3%. (2) The total state budget for FY2027 looks like $14.5 billion including the federal funds contribution a number that would have been unthinkable under earlier Idaho governors. Governor Little frames this as proof that tax cuts generate growth. The Idaho Freedom Foundation frames it as proof that government is growing out of control. Both are partly right, and that’s the core of the fight.

Damning Numbers: By the Idaho Freedom Foundation’s Scorecard: It’s 2026 Freedom Index tells the story in hard data. The average House Freedom Index score dropped from 68% to around 64%, and the Senate fell below 60%. Only 12 legislators earned scores of 90% or above down from 16 the prior year. Meanwhile, 42 legislators nearly 40% of the 105-member body earned membership in what IFF president Ron Nate calls the “Big Spender Caucus,” voting for increased spending more than 84% of the time. (4) On the separate Idaho Spending Index, the average legislator scored only 39% meaning lawmakers voted to expand budgets 61% of the time. These aren’t Democrats doing the spending. These are Republicans—your Republicans voting to grow government at rates that would make a moderate Democrat blush.

The IACI-Governor Alliance: The “Chamber of Commerce” Wing: IACI, big agriculture, and big developers account for much of the change in our state. Here’s how the dynamic works:

The Power Triangle: Governor Little (and Otter before him) represents the business wing of the Republican Party what the Idaho Freedom Foundation and grassroots conservatives call the “chamber of commerce Republicans” or the “establishment wing.” whose priorities are:

• Economic growth above all: measured by GDP, job creation, and business expansion
• Labor supply: which is why IACI and the Idaho Dairymen’s Association fight against E-Verify and immigration enforcement (as we saw in the IALW report you had me critique at the start of this conversation)
• Developer-friendly policy: minimal impact fees, streamlined permitting, accommodating rapid growth
• Medicaid expansion: which Little supported and signed, providing healthcare to 93,000 adults, many of whom work for the same businesses IACI represents
• Tax cuts paired with spending increases: cut rates but let the growing economy fund ever-larger budgets

IACI’s influence is well-documented. This is powerful business lobby in the state, representing major employers including the dairy industry, construction companies, tech firms, healthcare systems, and developers. Their legislative scorecard frequently rates the same lawmakers as “good” that the Idaho Freedom Foundation rates as “bad” because IACI rewards votes for business-friendly spending (infrastructure, workforce training, education funding) while IFF penalizes any vote that grows government.

The revolving door: Little himself was IACI’s executive vice president before entering politics. His chief of staff, his policy advisors, and many of his appointees come from the business community that IACI represents. This isn’t hidden—it’s the foundation of his governing philosophy.

How Otter and Little Grew Government While Calling It Conservative

12 Years of Governor Otter (2007-2019) Otter came in as a self-described libertarian who famously said he wanted government “so small you could barely see it.” What actually happened: Otter talked small government but governed as a growth manager. His administration presided over the beginning of the population boom that transformed the state.

• The state general fund budget grew from approximately $2.6 billion in FY2007 to $3.6 billion by FY2019: a 38% increase
• Otter supported and expanded the Idaho Department of Commerce
• He signed transportation funding increases
• He vetoed some spending bills but generally accommodated the growth lobby
• He fought the legislature on Medicaid expansion but the voters overrode him in 2018

Governor Little (8 Years and Counting) Little accelerated the trajectory Otter started:

• The state budget grew from approximately $3.8 billion in FY2019 to $5.8 billion in FY2027: a 53% increase in eight years
• He signed Medicaid expansion implementation
• He accepted hundreds of millions in federal COVID funds and incorporated that spending baseline into ongoing budgets
• He supported Idaho LAUNCH (workforce training) and major water infrastructure spending
• He vetoed a daycare deregulation bill and a graduate medical education cut siding with industry over conservative ideologues

The COVID spending acceleration is particularly telling. Federal COVID-era funding was intended for one-time projects, but as IFF documented, “the state continued that elevated spending level, creating ongoing, unsustainable obligations.” (6)

The “Liberal Left” Question: Is That the Right Label?

The label “liberal left” may not precisely describe what’s happening. What we are experiencing isn’t a drift toward progressive ideology it’s what you might call corporate Republicanism or growth-at-all-costs conservatism. This looks liberal to genuine fiscal conservatives because the end result is the same, bigger government, higher spending, more regulation (in the form of building codes, infrastructure mandates, etc.), these policies serve large employers rather than individual liberty.

Below are the specific policy outcomes that frustrate grassroots conservatives:

Immigration: IACI and the dairy/agriculture/construction lobby actively fight against E-Verify and immigration enforcement because they depend on undocumented labor. This is not a “liberal” position it’s a cheap labor position dressed up in economic language. But the effect is the same: the state’s population changes, the labor market is distorted, and taxpayers absorb the costs while employers keep profits.

Housing and Development: Big developers have enormous influence in Ada and Canyon counties. Impact fees that would make developers pay for the infrastructure their projects require (roads, schools, water, sewer) are fought by the development lobby, meaning existing taxpayers subsidize the growth that enriches developers. Idaho’s housing prices increased 168% the highest in the nation enriching developers and landowners while pricing out working families.

Education spending: The business wing supports education spending because they need a workforce. The fiscal conservative wing sees it as government growth. The result is increasing education budgets that satisfy neither camp too much for fiscal hawks, too little for education advocates.

Medicaid expansion: The voters approved it in 2018 by a 61-39 margin, and Little implemented it. It now covers 93,000 adults. The business wing supports it because it keeps their low-wage workers healthy enough to work without employer-provided insurance. Fiscal conservatives should see it as a massive new entitlement that will only grow over time.

The Real Fight is Republican vs. Republican

As one Idaho historian put it: “The Republican party in Idaho is at war with itself between this more traditional chamber of commerce country club wing of the party, and these really radicalized far right wingers.” Radicalized is as bit harsh I would say Fiscal Conservatives.(7) The Idaho State Journal editorial board framed it perfectly: “The philosophical divide on Idaho’s budget isn’t Democrat vs. Republican. Democrats favor more spending for virtually every social welfare program. But that stance leaves Democrats out of the budget debate. The conflict ends up between Republicans who project economic growth, and Republicans who hedge their bets.”(1}

While Governor Little would be considered one of the most conservative governors in America by any national standard. Within Idaho, he’s being challenged from the right by people who see his corporate-friendly, growth-accommodating governance as a betrayal of conservative principles with seven Republican primary challengers for the May primary.

How about a Tax Burden Reality Check: Idaho ranks 9th in state tax burdens—significantly higher than neighbors like Wyoming (1st lowest) and Nevada (which has no income tax). For a supposedly “red” state, this ranking should be very embarrassing. (6) Governor Little touts that Idaho is in the “top 10 for lowest overall state and local tax burden.” But IFF’s data tells a different story when you look at the full picture. (8)

So, What is the Bottom Line: are we really the Reddest of the Red States?

If you look at voting patterns the answer is yes and by partisan control, absolutely. With 31 years of Republican trifecta with no end in sight and by Trump vote share, it’s in the top five in the nation. But is Idaho governed as a genuinely conservative state? The answer has been increasly, no. The budget has doubled. Government employment has grown. Government is the largest employer in the state. Medicaid was expanded. The business lobby’s priorities Are cheap labor, developer subsidies, growth-friendly spending thanks to almost 700 lobbyists consistently win over fiscal conservative principles. Our governor who presides over all of this has no term limits and is running for a third term with Trump’s endorsement and IACI’s full support.

There is a growing segment of Idaho voters who recognize that wearing a red jersey doesn’t make you conservative if you govern like a moderate. The state hasn’t drifted “liberal left” in the cultural sense—Idaho hasn’t yet legalized marijuana or embraced progressive social policies or elected may Democrats. But it has drifted toward a corporatist, growth-at-all-costs model that grows government, serves big business, and passes the costs to ordinary Idahoans through higher utility rates, unaffordable housing, strained infrastructure, and a budget that doubles every decade.

The important question is can a grassroots conservative movement successfully primary enough establishment Republicans to shift the balance of power or will the IACI-governor alliance continues to define what “Republican” means in Idaho. The May 19 primary will be the next test. Idahoans need to step to the plate and find out who the real conservatives and put them in charge if we are to bring back “Idaho the Reddest of the Red States.”

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Sources:

1. (Source: World Population Review, “Most Republican States 2026”; Conservative Move, December 2024)
2. (Source: Americans for Tax Reform, citing Mountain States Policy Center, April 2026)
3. (Source: Idaho State Journal, January 2026)
4. (Source: Idaho Radio/Idaho Freedom Foundation, April 2026
5. (Source: Idaho Freedom Foundation, “A Conservative Budget for Idaho,” 2025
6. (Source: Idaho Freedom Foundation, 2025)
7. (Source: Scripps News, May 2022)
8. (Source: Governor’s Office press releases, May 2026; IFF rebuttal)