Four weeks ago, 40,000 PHD’s and Medical doctors signed THE GREAT BARRINGTON PROJECT PETITION. Led by virologist Jay Bhattacharya from Stanford. Dr. Sunetra Gupta from Oxford University and Dr. Martin Kulldorf from Harvard little credence was given in the media to their findings and recommendations. Dr. Marty Makaray from The Johns Hopkins Department of Public Health has also written extensively and contributed to the evolving body of science about the COVID-19 virus. His voice has also been silenced by a media narrative that does not conform to his ideas and strategies. The scientists mentioned above all come from different academic, clinical, and political backgrounds yet they have come to similar conclusions regarding how we have responded to the Covid-19 pandemic and how we should move forward from where we are today.
In Mid-March of 2020, we received many mixed signals from our public health officials and even from the general medical community. Many experts (an expert is someone who knows a lot about one little sliver of knowledge and nothing about anything else) told us that nationwide we would see 20 million deaths and in our State of Idaho we were told that 10-20% of our people would succumb to the virus a number in line with smallpox death rates of 30%. 170,000-240,000 deaths in Idaho was an exaggeration based on no factual scientific evidence. In late March, I wrote an article defining the difference between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). The CFR is simply the number of deaths divided by the number of known infected patients. Since early on most of the people tested were symptomatic or had been in contact with and infected patient the numerator was a small number.
Dr. Bhattacharya in late March reported on his “Santa Clara County Study” that far more people had been infected at a rate of 50 times greater than had previously been identified. He recommend early serologic antibody testing. In Santa Clara County 1000people had been identified with the antigen test, but 50,000 people carried antibodies. This would have made the death rate at .03% instead of 3% or 3/100000 instead of 3/100. A big difference but little reported on by the mainstream media or public health specialists on State or Federal task forces. And in those areas where the death rate was higher (CFR and IFR) are dependent on more factors than just the virus’s transmissibility and infectivity—how close are people living together for example, like the tristate area mistakes were made by politicians and public health directors.
Sending Covid-19 positive patients back to nursing homes where vulnerable patients would be exposed and then infected was medical malpractice. Yet Governor Cuomo writes a book bragging about his leadership during the worse days of the crises. His ideas were ill conceived and ill-advised and his tactics and strategies were catastrophic. Had he been a General on the Battlefield he would have been court-martialed and found guilty of dereliction. He and his public health director even tried to pass a law after the fact indemnifying them from liability—malpractice, while at the same time creating a standard of care out of their standard of malpractice! In other words, they were more concerned about covering their own backsides than they were taking care of people. The fact that they knowingly tried to pass this legislation is Prima Fasciae evidence of their guilt and culpability—I am not a lawyer but like most Idahoans I have common sense and an olfactory talent to be able to smell BS through a television screen or a computer.
What the great Barrington Project also realized is that there are opportunity costs and tradeoffs when aggressive public health strategies are deployed. Most of the time the people who are adversely affected are those living on the margins and children. The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that 130million people will starve this year in the world as a result of economic damage from COVID-19 lockdowns. Measles. Chickenpox, diphtheria, TB, and Malaria are occurring in at risk populations across the world at higher rates than they have in decades. In our own country children are not getting vaccinated against childhood diseases because of lockdowns. Hans Rovsig in FACTFULLNESS has identified 3 billion people in the world living at or just above a subsistence level. Over the past 20 years, as the world economy has improved, 1 billion of these people have been lifted out of the lowest two levels and are now participating in the economies of their countries and local communities. With the lockdowns these billion people are at risk for loosing what they have gained over the past 20 years.
Moving forward we need to better define who is at risk. The virus is not equally dangerous to everybody and our tactics and strategy should reflect this fact. If you are under 70 you have a 99.9% chance of recovering completely from the virus. If you are over 70 you have a 99.0% chance of recovering. Comorbid conditions define risk better than age. In England the median age of death from the virus is 81 yrs. Life expectancy in England is 81 years. In 2019 in our country 2,900,000 people died. With COVID-19 that number goes up by 16%—more than the COVID-19 number alone because people are dying from other causes at a faster rate—heart disease, cancer, and even neonatal mortality is up in our country because mothers aren’t going to their doctors for pre-natal care in the numbers that they used to.
But of all the disinformation given to us by the public health professionals and the echo chamber media, the idea that lockdowns work after the initial phase of the pandemic is fallacy and Foley—Foley that is failing as we speak. In the often sited St. Louis shutdown in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic the shutdown worked early on, but in the 2nd and 3rd stages only type three mitigation worked. And that is exactly what should be done in the USA and Idaho. Those at risk should be isolated and preparations for their care should they become infected should be done prospectively. My daughter in law was recently treated for Diffuse Histiocytic Lymphoma with chemotherapy and a splenectomy and she is staying home and taking precautions. This is an example of type 3 mitigation strategy. OTHERWISE: Schools should open up. Businesses should open up. The curve was crushed early on in the 1st wave and is being crushed now—despite what you are hearing on the national and local fronts. I will include the Idaho information below and you can see for yourself the status of ICU beds respirators and hospital beds. The evidence is incontrovertible. Open up, Governor. The sky isn’t falling.
One reply on “COVID-19 Moving Forward”
Fine ! The conservatives’ “four letter F word”. On both the CRIMINAL election front and the Destroy our livelihoods and families front we had oughta get some GRIT in our GUTS and show them how we don’t like this criminal and traitorous leadership!!! It has now become murderous Despotism.
On the Election front we should STOP SETTLING FOR THE LIES and Blocked out windows and let the Covert, now become overt, factions be punished. LOOK UP THE BATTLE OF ATHENS, 1946 Tennessee. The good ol’ boys with
guts and guns and mostly RESOLVE !! in their spirits. stopped the “officials and Law officers” who were deeply dedicated to STEAL THE BALLOTS AWAY FOR A PRIVATE COUNTING. The Law requires public open counting.
The citizens did not yield or get buffalo’d into accepting the the “officials'” direction to stand down and let us do our job. After the Citizens armed up and attacked the TRAITORS thrughout the night, the ballot boxes were recovered and proper open counting commenced. Sure enough the “usual winning characters” were voted out…!!
GET MAD and TELL THEM THE MANY REASONS THIS ELECTION WAS SOO PERVERTED. One is the took one of the Dominion machines and fed it EQUAL number of Trump and Biden ballots. the machine reported 26% more votes to Biden…. THIS IS PRIMA-FASCIA EVIDENCE OF HUGE IRRECONCILABLE PROBLEMS! THE ENTIRE ELECTION SHOULD BE REDONE _ would likely cost less than the Wall. AND IS VITALLY IMPORTANT TO NOT LOSE OUR COUNTRY TO DEEP SOCIALIST DRIVES TO TAKE YOUR LIVES MORE AND MORE..
On the “Government Virus” (sadly even here in Idaho) is ruining peoples lives and adding to the division of people wanting to make their living and keep their assets from liquidation. This “CRISIS” goes hand in hand with covertly manipulating the vote process.
One note, Masks are minimally helpful and certainly not doing anything but hurt the wearer driving alone in their cars. (Hmm, these “Useful Idiots” don’t even need a Biden Bumper Sticker…. I (A Doctor (of Dental Surgery for 40 years) contracted the CCP Fauci Flu and personally was told by three different Medical offices to: NOT COME IN TO BE SEEN, BUT TAKE TYLENOL AND GET REST, AND WHEN YOUR SYMPTOMS SUBSIDE YOU CAN COME IN AND SEE THE DOCTOR”, WTF WTF !! This “Supervised NEGLECT” is only a shade away from MALPRACTICE !!. When I finally found a good Doc it was 10 days into my exposure and diagnosis, I had some lung damage pneumonia. If I hadn’t put myself on Hydroxychloroquin and an Antibiotic and seen the attentive quality Doctor W and later Doctor T where I was better diagnosed with a contrast lung x-ray. Without EARLY CARE THAT IS COUNTRAINDICATED BY THE CRIMINAL CDC I surely would have gone down into hospital land….. As it was- we upped the HCQ, another round of antibiotics and added Budesinide inhalation anti-inflammatory and a systemic regime of Medrol Anti-Inflammatory. My “half a cold” feeling is deceptive as there is a preferential attack at lung tissue and a bad cascade of inflammation that adds to an accelerated decrease in ones condition. SO THE BIG STORY FOR ALL LISTENING IS EARLY TREATMENT INCLUDING Zinc, Vit D, Vit C, B Complex and other helpers to our immune system like Elderberry and others. This disease is easy to treat and it’s worked very well for hundreds of thousands. I was out of my “not bad cold” in 3 weeks from diagnosis. Stop the Drama Crime the news perpetuates. I learned about Budesinide, Inflammation and HCQ from guests on several One America News Network shows, NOT THE DESTRUCTIVE MAJOR NEW OUTLETS. I cannot stand watching my fellow hard working small business (and Tax paying) citizens suffering/”losing their lives” in even this better than most state, at the hands of BAD POLITICAL LEADERS doing the DEMOCRAT DOLLAR DANCE!! STAND UP TALL AND GET IN THE FACES OF THESE “PLANdemic” “LOOTERS” hurting America because there is an agenda to CONTROL OUR LIVES IN A NOT GOOD WAY.
By the way, REAL Covid only USA deaths (~ 11-12,000) are about the same as H1N1. H1N1 cases were 60,000,000. Far worse but no stir up, stress, shut down of our country. Then there were AIDS Patients, that I treated, were 100% DEATH within 12-18 months for anyone contracting it. Barely a squeek of societal shut down. I recall only the Gay frequented bath houses.