{"id":19916,"date":"2026-06-01T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/?p=19916"},"modified":"2026-06-01T17:26:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T23:26:31","slug":"podcast-idaho-primary-election-results-2026-conservative-losses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/podcast-idaho-primary-election-results-2026-conservative-losses\/","title":{"rendered":"PODCAST: Idaho Primary Election Results 2026: Conservative Losses"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Listen<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Bob Neugebauer welcomes Ron Nate, president of the Idaho Freedom Foundation, to analyze the results of Idaho\u2019s 2026 primary elections, held one week prior. The conversation covers the governor\u2019s race, federal delegation, state constitutional officers, legislative gains and losses, and the demographic patterns that explain why conservatives won big in 2024 but lost ground in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The headline number is a net loss of three conservative seats in the legislature. Five of the twelve Freedom Index all-stars \u2014 Glenita Zeiderweld, Lucas Kaler, David Levitt, Josh Cole, and Fay Thompson \u2014 lost their primaries, all in Magic Valley and southern Idaho districts where establishment spending reached an estimated $800,000 to $1 million. Conservative pickups partially offset the losses: Scott Herndon defeated Jim Woodward in the north, Jane Souder won against Mark Souder, and Colton Bennett secured the nomination for Lori McCann\u2019s vacated seat. But the net math is minus one in the Senate and minus two in the House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nate presents a demographic model explaining the pattern: the weakest counties for conservatives share three features \u2014 high ag industry influence, large non-citizen populations that inflate the voting power of establishment-aligned citizens, and low in-migration from California, Oregon, and Washington. Northern Idaho, which has the inverse profile, continues to hold conservative seats durably. Nate frames the 2024 conservative sweep of the Magic Valley as an anomaly where the establishment was caught off-guard, and the 2026 results as the correction once hundreds of thousands in special interest money flooded those same races.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conversation also addresses the governor\u2019s race \u2014 Brad Little won with 59%, but challenger Mark Fitzpatrick\u2019s 28.7% as a relative unknown signals significant Republican dissatisfaction \u2014 and the fact that all six constitutional officers ran unchallenged. Neugebauer notes that five of those officers endorsed a state senator who blocked immigration bills, raising questions about the administration\u2019s direction. The episode closes with a discussion of property tax elimination, where Nate argues Idaho could phase out its $2.3 billion property tax within seven years using natural revenue growth without raising other taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

0:01 Introduction and Constitutional Officers\u2019 Endorsement Controversy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bob Neugebauer opens by framing the primary election results as unexpected and introduces the theme of Idaho\u2019s continuing leftward drift. The conversation immediately turns to five constitutional officers who endorsed a state senator accused of blocking three immigration bills and supporting driver\u2019s licenses for undocumented immigrants. Nate singles out the Secretary of State\u2019s involvement as unprecedented and raises the conflict-of-interest problem: the official who certifies elections has now taken sides in legislative races, undermining public confidence in the resolution of any future close or disputed election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3:19 The Governor\u2019s Race: Brad Little\u2019s 59% and the Fitzpatrick Signal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neugebauer highlights Mark Fitzpatrick\u2019s 28.7% showing against Governor Brad Little as the highest primary challenge performance from a relative unknown. Nate frames it differently: 40% of Idaho Republicans voted against the sitting governor, and much of Fitzpatrick\u2019s support represents a no-confidence vote rather than name recognition. They walk through the rest of the top of the ticket \u2014 Jim Risch winning the Senate nomination with 67%, Russ Fulcher cruising in the 1st Congressional District, and Mike Simpson again exceeding 60% in the 2nd District despite voting records Nate characterizes as consistently un-Republican, including TARP, Cash for Clunkers, and dam removal advocacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7:48 Unchallenged Constitutional Officers and the Power of Incumbency<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nate notes that every constitutional officer \u2014 Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, State Controller, State Treasurer, Attorney General, and Superintendent of Public Instruction \u2014 ran unchallenged in the Republican primary. He questions whether this reflects satisfaction or resignation and points out that Debbie Critchfield and Scott Bedke received noticeably fewer votes than fellow incumbents, suggesting selective abstention by dissatisfied Republican voters. Neugebauer attributes the lack of challengers to the financial and institutional power of the ag industry and IACI, which he argues have controlled the state for 20 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

11:25 Legislative Results: Five All-Stars Lost, Net Minus Three<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nate delivers the core legislative results: of the 12 Freedom Index all-stars, 8 belonged to the so-called Gang of Eight, and 5 of those 8 lost their primaries \u2014 Glenita Zeiderweld, Lucas Kaler, David Levitt, Josh Cole, and Fay Thompson. Tanya Burgoyne, a B-range legislator in southeastern Idaho, also lost. Conservative pickups came from Scott Herndon defeating Jim Woodward, Jane Souder defeating Mark Souder, and Colton Bennett winning the nomination for Lori McCann\u2019s vacated seat. The net result is minus one in the Senate and minus two in the House, which Nate describes as a baby step backward after two election cycles of significant conservative gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

13:31 The Demographic Formula: Why Conservatives Win Up North and Lose in the Magic Valley<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nate presents a three-variable model explaining which districts elect conservatives and which don\u2019t. Conservative districts have high in-migration from California, Oregon, and Washington \u2014 people fleeing liberal governance \u2014 low non-citizen populations, and low ag industry influence. Districts 1, 2, 3, 23, and 31 in northern Idaho fit this profile. The weakest districts for conservatives \u2014 26, 27 in the Magic Valley and 9 in far western Idaho \u2014 have the inverse: high illegal immigration that inflates establishment voting power because non-citizens don\u2019t vote but are counted in district apportionment, plus heavy ag industry presence. Nate frames the 2024 conservative sweep of the Magic Valley as the establishment being caught asleep, and 2026 as the correction once $800,000 to $1 million flooded those races.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

20:18 The Special Interest Spending Pipeline: From COVID Funds to Campaign Dollars<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nate describes what he calls a filtration system: special interests spend heavily on establishment candidates because those candidates, once elected, direct hundreds of millions in state spending back toward the healthcare, ag, and insurance industries. He uses St. Luke\u2019s as an example \u2014 spending hundreds of thousands on campaigns is a rational investment when it secures hundreds of millions in Medicaid and healthcare appropriations. The $11 billion in federal COVID spending over five years has amplified this cycle, converting government healthcare dollars into higher campaign spending to maintain the funding pipeline. Neugebauer adds that hospital-based outpatient clinics are now charging patients thousands for visits that previously cost $300.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

24:31 Property Tax Elimination and the \u201cHow Will You Replace It?\u201d Litmus Test<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neugebauer pivots to Idaho\u2019s high housing prices and asks what property tax elimination would do for affordability. Nate notes that Idaho collects $2.3 billion in property taxes annually, and that the tax is rolled into mortgage qualification calculations, directly limiting who can afford a home. He outlines a seven-year phase-out plan using natural revenue growth without raising other taxes. The most revealing moment comes when Nate describes posting about property tax elimination online and receiving pushback not from Democrats but from self-identified conservatives asking \u201chow will we replace that tax?\u201d \u2014 a question he argues reveals an unconscious leftward shift in assumptions, where government spending is treated as inherently justified and any reduction requires replacement rather than simply being cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

29:00 National Frustrations, Idaho\u2019s Crossroads, and Colorado\u2019s Potential Turning Point<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neugebauer asks whether the leftward drift reflects a generational attitude shift, and the conversation briefly touches on national frustrations \u2014 gas prices above $4 instead of the promised $2, continued international entanglements, and unmet expectations. Nate draws the parallel between Idaho\u2019s current population of just over 2 million and the colonial population of the 13 colonies in 1775, framing Idaho as being at a crossroads between maintaining conservative governance and following Colorado\u2019s trajectory. Neugebauer offers a counterpoint of hope, noting that a conservative Republican gubernatorial candidate in Colorado could represent a turning point for a state he watched turn blue 25 years ago. Both close by debating whether in-migration from California, Oregon, and Washington truly brings conservative voters or simply relocates liberal ones<\/p>\n\n\n

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Bob Neugebauer welcomes Ron Nate, president of the Idaho Freedom Foundation, to analyze the results of Idaho\u2019s 2026 primary elections, held one week prior. The conversation covers the governor\u2019s race, federal delegation, state constitutional officers, legislative gains and losses, and the demographic patterns that explain why conservatives won big in 2024 but lost ground in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18077,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1502],"tags":[28,348,53],"class_list":["post-19916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-podcast","tag-election","tag-idaho","tag-idaho-legislature","cat-1502-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19916","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19916"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19916\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19917,"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19916\/revisions\/19917"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18077"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19916"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19916"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gemstatepatriot.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19916"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}