Using raw partisan metrics, Idaho remains one of the most Republican states in America. It ranks as the 5th most Republican state<\/strong> with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+18.<\/strong> Trump won Idaho with 63.8% in 2020. Republicans have held a trifecta<\/strong> (Governor, House, Senate) for 31 consecutive years.<\/strong> The last Democratic governor left office in 1995. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state was LBJ in 1964. (1)<\/em><\/strong>But there\u2019s a problem with that metric as being \u201cRepublican\u201d and being \u201cconservative\u201d are no longer the same thing in Idaho.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Budget Has More Than Doubled: Numbers don’t lie<\/strong>. Idaho’s state budget has doubled in the last 8 years from approx. 7 billion to over 14 billion including the federal funds contribution which is currently about 5.5 billion. While the top income tax rate has been cut<\/strong> from 7.4% to a flat 5.3%. (2)<\/em> <\/strong>The total state budget for FY2027 looks like $14.5 billion including the federal funds contribution a number that would have been unthinkable under earlier Idaho governors. Governor Little frames this as proof that tax cuts generate growth. The Idaho Freedom Foundation frames it as proof that government is growing out of control. Both are partly right, and that’s the core of the fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Damning Numbers: By the Idaho Freedom Foundation’s Scorecard: <\/strong>It\u2019s 2026 Freedom Index tells the story in hard data. The average House Freedom Index score dropped from 68% to around 64%<\/strong>, and the Senate fell below 60%.<\/strong> Only 12 legislators<\/strong> earned scores of 90% or above down from 16 the prior year. Meanwhile, 42 legislators nearly 40% of the 105-member body<\/strong> earned membership in what IFF president Ron Nate calls the \u201cBig Spender Caucus,\u201d voting for increased spending more than 84% of the time. (4)<\/em> <\/strong>On the separate Idaho Spending Index, the average legislator scored only 39%<\/strong> meaning lawmakers voted to expand budgets 61% of the time. <\/strong>These aren’t Democrats doing the spending. These are Republicans<\/strong>\u2014your Republicans voting to grow government at rates that would make a moderate Democrat blush.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The IACI-Governor Alliance: The \u201cChamber of Commerce\u201d Wing: <\/strong>IACI, big agriculture, and big developers account for much of the change in our state. Here’s how the dynamic works:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Power Triangle:<\/strong> Governor Little (and Otter before him) represents the business wing<\/strong> of the Republican Party what the Idaho Freedom Foundation and grassroots conservatives call the \u201cchamber of commerce Republicans\u201d or the \u201cestablishment wing.\u201d whose priorities are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n IACI’s influence is well-documented.<\/strong> This is powerful business lobby in the state, representing major employers including the dairy industry, construction companies, tech firms, healthcare systems, and developers. Their legislative scorecard frequently rates the same lawmakers as \u201cgood\u201d that the Idaho Freedom Foundation rates as \u201cbad\u201d because IACI rewards votes for business-friendly spending (infrastructure, workforce training, education funding) while IFF penalizes any vote that grows government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The revolving door:<\/strong> Little himself was IACI’s executive vice president before entering politics. His chief of staff, his policy advisors, and many of his appointees come from the business community that IACI represents. This isn’t hidden\u2014it’s the foundation of his governing philosophy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How Otter and Little Grew Government While Calling It Conservative<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 12 Years of Governor Otter (2007-2019) <\/strong>Otter came in as a self-described libertarian who famously said he wanted government \u201cso small you could barely see it.\u201d What actually happened: Otter talked small government but governed as a growth manager. His administration presided over the beginning of the population boom that transformed the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Governor Little (8 Years and Counting) <\/strong>Little accelerated the trajectory Otter started:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The COVID spending acceleration is particularly telling. Federal COVID-era funding was intended for one-time projects, but as IFF documented, \u201cthe state continued that elevated spending level, creating ongoing, unsustainable obligations.\u201d (6)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The \u201cLiberal Left\u201d Question: Is That the Right Label?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The label \u201cliberal left\u201d may not precisely describe what’s happening. What we are experiencing isn’t a drift toward progressive ideology it\u2019s what you might call corporate Republicanism<\/strong> or growth-at-all-costs conservatism<\/strong>. This looks liberal to genuine fiscal conservatives because the end result is the same, bigger government, higher spending, more regulation (in the form of building codes, infrastructure mandates, etc.), these policies serve large employers rather than individual liberty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Below are the specific policy outcomes that frustrate grassroots conservatives:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Immigration:<\/strong> IACI and the dairy\/agriculture\/construction lobby actively fight against E-Verify and immigration enforcement because they depend on undocumented labor. This is not a \u201cliberal\u201d position it’s a cheap labor<\/strong> position dressed up in economic language. But the effect is the same: the state’s population changes, the labor market is distorted, and taxpayers absorb the costs while employers keep profits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Housing and Development:<\/strong> Big developers have enormous influence in Ada and Canyon counties. Impact fees that would make developers pay for the infrastructure their projects require (roads, schools, water, sewer) are fought by the development lobby, meaning existing taxpayers subsidize the growth that enriches developers. Idaho’s housing prices increased 168%<\/strong> the highest in the nation enriching developers and landowners while pricing out working families.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Education spending:<\/strong> The business wing supports education spending because they need a workforce. The fiscal conservative wing sees it as government growth. The result is increasing education budgets that satisfy neither camp too much for fiscal hawks, too little for education advocates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Medicaid expansion:<\/strong> The voters approved it in 2018 by a 61-39 margin, and Little implemented it. It now covers 93,000 adults. The business wing supports it because it keeps their low-wage workers healthy enough to work without employer-provided insurance. Fiscal conservatives should see it as a massive new entitlement that will only grow over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Real Fight is Republican vs. Republican<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n As one Idaho historian put it: \u201cThe Republican party in Idaho is at war with itself between this more traditional chamber of commerce country club wing of the party, and these really radicalized far right wingers.\u201d Radicalized is as bit harsh I would say Fiscal Conservatives.(7)<\/em><\/strong> The Idaho State Journal editorial board framed it perfectly: \u201cThe philosophical divide on Idaho’s budget isn’t Democrat vs. Republican. Democrats favor more spending for virtually every social welfare program. But that stance leaves Democrats out of the budget debate. The conflict ends up between Republicans who project economic growth, and Republicans who hedge their bets.\u201d(1}<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n While Governor Little would be considered one of the most conservative governors in America by any national standard. Within Idaho, he’s being challenged from the right by people who see his corporate-friendly, growth-accommodating governance as a betrayal of conservative principles with seven Republican primary challengers<\/strong> for the May primary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How about a Tax Burden Reality Check: <\/strong>Idaho ranks 9th in state tax burdens<\/strong>\u2014significantly higher than neighbors like Wyoming (1st lowest) and Nevada (which has no income tax). For a supposedly \u201cred\u201d state, this ranking should be very embarrassing. (6) <\/em><\/strong>Governor Little touts that Idaho is in the \u201ctop 10 for lowest overall state and local tax burden.\u201d But IFF’s data tells a different story when you look at the full picture. (8)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n So, What is the Bottom Line: are we really the Reddest of the Red States?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n If you look at voting patterns the answer is yes <\/strong>and by partisan control, absolutely. With 31 years of Republican trifecta with no end in sight and by Trump vote share, it’s in the top five in the nation. But is Idaho governed as a genuinely conservative state? The answer has been increasly, no.<\/strong> The budget has doubled. Government employment has grown. Government is the largest employer in the state. Medicaid was expanded. The business lobby’s priorities Are cheap labor, developer subsidies, growth-friendly spending thanks to almost 700 lobbyists consistently win over fiscal conservative principles. Our governor who presides over all of this has no term limits and is running for a third term with Trump’s endorsement and IACI’s full support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is a growing segment of Idaho voters who recognize that wearing a red jersey doesn’t make you conservative if you govern like a moderate.<\/strong> The state hasn’t drifted \u201cliberal left\u201d in the cultural sense\u2014Idaho hasn\u2019t yet legalized marijuana or embraced progressive social policies or elected may Democrats. But it has drifted toward a corporatist, growth-at-all-costs model<\/strong> that grows government, serves big business, and passes the costs to ordinary Idahoans through higher utility rates, unaffordable housing, strained infrastructure, and a budget that doubles every decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The important question is can a grassroots conservative movement successfully primary enough establishment Republicans to shift the balance of power or will the IACI-governor alliance continues to define what \u201cRepublican\u201d means in Idaho. The May 19 primary will be the next test. Idahoans need to step to the plate and find out who the real conservatives and put them in charge if we are to bring back \u201cIdaho the Reddest of the Red States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n By the Numbers, Yes. Using raw partisan metrics, Idaho remains one of the most Republican states in America. It ranks as the 5th most Republican state with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+18. Trump won Idaho with 63.8% in 2020. Republicans have held a trifecta (Governor, House, Senate) for 31 consecutive years. 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