Idaho’s conservative Republicans have had a great couple of weeks. Dorothy Moon being reelected by 62% of the Delegate vote at the State Convention in Coeur d ‘Alene jml was a bigger margin than she got last time around. Russ Fulcher is making a name for himself in Washington DC and in Idaho.
Raul Labrador gave a convention speech that rocked the house in CDL and took the show away from Keri Lake. Because we have been caught up in fighting the establishment for over a decade—since “Tea Party Days,” we have only been able to think tactically and not strategically. Now it is finally our time to control our destiny. WE must defend our flanks but prepare ourselves for our own frontal assault on the Statehouse and for future legislative seats in DC. We now have a mandate to take on the special interests including IACI, the Medical and Hospital Corporatists, The Farm Bureau and The CofC.
First, we should understand that 4-6 years from now we will probably have a new governor, a new Lt. Governor, two new US Senators and two new US Congressmen. We need to be careful about how we play our hand as we try to win each one of those seats.
I believe the two strongest Republicans in our State right now are Raul Labrador and Russ Fulcher. Let’s hope they don’t “eat themselves alive” this time around. Dorothy Moon is strong and gaining strength, but she has some ground to make up on the top two.
If either Raul or Russ wants to be Governor, they must make sure that there will still be room at the table for the other person. No more triangulating by running two conservatives in a primary against one establishment moderate and having the moderate win with 40% of the vote.
That leaves two US Senate seats up for grabs and two possible House seats, depending on what Mr. Fulcher does. Conservatives have a deep bench so look for Dorothy Moon, Brian Smith, and maybe a dark horse like Senator Dan Foreman from District 6—there are others for sure and these races will mature with time.
Conservatives need to be ready for another surge from the Romney wing of the party. Our political strategy can be very different in statewide races because we only have to win maybe 60-65% of our own party to win a general election. We won’t have to win a significant percentage of democrats or independents like Mr. Trump will have to do in a nationwide election where the electorate is roughly divided into thirds—Democrat—Republican—Independent. Mr. Trump will have to win 60% of independents to win the general election in November which is why the virtue signaling suburban vote is still important in a national election. He will also have to be not “Romnied”—George not Mitt, like what happened to Barry Goldwater in 1964 when the establishment wing of the party ran away from the good Senator the last weeks of the election allowing Lyndon Johnson to win. I understand Paul Ryan and Liz Cheney are already in their starting blocks ready to run away from DJT
Running for election as a Republican is very different if one is running in Canyon County or Ada County. Running for Statewide office in Idaho is more like running in Canyon County. The only hope for a moderate Republican next time around is if they are allowed to benefit from “ranked—henceforth referred to as rank—choice voting”.
Most people—including many of those endorsing that system don’t understand that it is just not a runoff between the number 1 & 2 positions in a second election, but that votes down ballot are also counted toward deciding a winner each “go around”! Ask Sarah Palin how that worked out in Alaska.
So, if conservatives are thinking strategically, they must fight the moderate “rankers”—sounds much better and more “hip” than RINO don’t you think(?), tooth and nail so that we can fill those soon to be empty positions moving forward with true Idaho conservatives. Many in the old school establishment crowd are favoring “rank choice” because they see it as their only chance to stay in the game for years to come.
I am not a politician or a political consultant, but I did spend the night at a Holiday INN EXPRESS and for what it is worth that is my “medical opinion”.
“Win Baby Win” — Al Davis
