Bob Neugebauer and Ron Nate, president of the Idaho Freedom Foundation, deliver a final-week breakdown of the 2026 legislative session as it scrambles to adjourn. Nate reports that the $800 million in spending cuts the legislature set out to achieve have been fully consumed — and then some — by agency enhancement requests, pushing the final budget from a targeted $13.3 billion to an estimated $14.2 billion or higher, depending on what the Budget Committee approves in its final meetings. Not a single tax was cut this session: no income tax relief, no grocery tax repeal, no property tax reduction, and no sales tax cuts. In contrast, House Bill 670 — a radiator-capped bill sponsored by Senate Pro Tem Kelly Anton — would actually raise property tax limits for cities and counties statewide, making it one of the worst bills of the session by IFF’s rating.
Nate details two significant uses of the “radiator cap” procedural maneuver this session — where the content of one bill is entirely replaced with new legislation to bypass committee gatekeeping. The tactic was used successfully to advance House Bill 516, the teacher union dues bill, after Sen. Dan Foreman buried the original version in his committee drawer. Christy Zito’s earlier attempt to call that bill to the Senate floor was defeated when the full Senate leadership voted to keep it in the drawer. Meanwhile, Nate catalogs a string of conservative priorities that died quietly in committee: Medicaid expansion repeal, CPS reform, medical freedom legislation, and grocery tax repeal — all held by individual committee chairs, never heard, never voted on.
The conversation turns to the broader political landscape. Nate’s data analyst contacts have identified Idaho as effectively a four-party state in the House — conservatives, Main Street Republicans, moderates, and Democrats — with true conservatives numbering only about 15 in the House and 7 or 8 in the Senate. Nate describes attending a “No Kings” rally in Boise that drew approximately 5,000 people on a chilly Saturday morning, warning that this is not astroturf but genuinely organized Idaho citizens, driven by goals including marijuana and abortion legalization by ballot initiative. He calls it a warning sign that conservatives are not matching in energy or numbers. Bob connects the movement to well-funded national NGO networks he believes need to be exposed and stripped of their 501(c)(3) status.
0:01 Final Budget Update: $800M in Cuts Reversed Into a Spending Increase
Nate opens with the session’s budget verdict, tracked live at IdahoFreedom.org: the legislature’s intended $813 million in spending cuts have been fully overpowered by agency enhancement requests, pushing the 2027 budget from a targeted $13.3 billion to an estimated $14.2 billion — and climbing, as the Budget Committee continues to hear additional enhancement bills in the session’s final days. Bob confirms the 2026 budget lands at approximately $14.1 billion.
2:57 Legislative Shenanigans: Radiator Caps, Drawn Bills, and HB 516 vs. HB 670
Nate explains the “radiator cap” maneuver — replacing one bill’s content entirely with new legislation to bypass a hostile committee chair — and describes how it was used twice this session. House Bill 516 was radiator-capped to become the teacher union dues bill, successfully routing around Sen. Foreman’s drawer. In the opposite direction, House Bill 670 was radiator-capped by Senate Pro Tem Kelly Anton to become a property tax increase bill, raising budget limits for cities and counties statewide — rated by IFF as one of the worst bills of the session.
8:07 Zero Tax Relief: No Income, Property, Grocery, or Sales Tax Cuts
Nate walks through every category of potential tax relief and finds none passed. No income tax cuts, no grocery tax repeal, no sales tax relief, no property tax reduction — only a conforming adoption of the federal Trump tax cuts that were already in place. To cover the budget shortfall without cutting spending or raising taxes directly, the legislature is drawing from reserve accounts, including a fund set aside for a once-every-11-or-12-year 27th payroll cycle — which Nate characterizes as borrowing against future taxpayers.
11:33 Conservative Bills Buried: Medicaid, CPS Reform, Medical Freedom, Grocery Tax
Nate catalogs the conservative legislation that died in committee drawers this session: Medicaid expansion repeal held by House Health and Welfare Chairman John VanderWoude, CPS reform held in the same committee, medical freedom legislation also drawn there, and the grocery tax repeal submitted as a personal bill — effectively dead on arrival without even receiving a hearing. Meanwhile, he notes the Senate passed a bill allowing new real estate developers to pass infrastructure costs onto district taxpayers rather than absorbing them, effectively a property tax increase that cleared the floor 25 or 26 to 9 or 10.
13:14 The Idaho Child Care Program: Stopped for Now, but the Pattern Is Clear
Nate reports that IFF worked hard to kill Senate Bill 1419, which would have created the Idaho Child Care Program in statute — locking in DHW childcare spending permanently, as IFF’s rule holds that no government program, once in statute, ever shrinks. He notes the bill contained no exclusion for undocumented immigrants, and contrasts it with legitimate conservative wins like keeping the program out of statute, at least this session. Nate frames this as a pattern: once programs like the Early Reading Initiative and STEM Action Center enter statute, they are funded and increased forever.
16:38 Freedom Index Preview and the Primary Election Call to Action
With the session ending, Nate urges voters to use the Idaho Freedom Index — to be published days after adjournment — to hold legislators accountable at the primary. He explains that IFF rates bills, not legislators; legislators determine their own scores by their votes, and they know the ratings before they cast them. He expects low scores across the board and names kratom regulation, hemp bills, rat abatement, and left-lane driving laws as examples of what the legislature did prioritize while burying meaningful conservative legislation.
24:38 Idaho Is a Four-Party State — And Conservatives Are Outnumbered
Responding to Bob’s characterization of the legislature as “Blue Dog Democrats in Republican clothing,” Nate shares analysis from a data analyst colleague who identifies four distinct voting blocs in the Idaho House: conservatives, Main Street Republicans, moderates, and Democrats. True conservatives number only about 15 in the House and 7 or 8 in the Senate — vastly outnumbered by a combined liberal coalition. Nate calls this the “Gem State heist”: not Democrats winning elections outright, but Blue Dog Republicans voting liberal outcomes while carrying Republican labels.
27:49 The No Kings Rally: 5,000 Organized Leftists and a Warning for Conservatives
Nate describes attending a “No Kings” rally in Boise that drew roughly 5,000 people — and warns it is not astroturf. IFF conducted man-on-the-street interviews and found genuine Idaho residents, fired up and organized in a way reminiscent of the 2008–2009 Tea Party movement. Their stated goals include legalizing marijuana and abortion by ballot initiative. Bob connects the movement to well-funded national NGO networks and calls for their 501(c)(3) status to be revoked. Both agree conservative turnout and organization currently do not match what the left is putting on the street.
35:41 Forest Service Prescribed Burns, Education Levies, and Closing Events
Bob raises a local issue — the Forest Service’s plan to conduct prescribed burns of 41,000 acres around New Meadows because dead timber from a 2020 moth kill was never logged — as an example of federal land management failing Idahoans. Nate pivots to education, noting Idaho’s 32% proficiency rate and flagging $181 million in new school tax levies appearing on the primary ballot across 33 communities.
