Bob Neugebauer welcomes Ron Nate, president of the Idaho Freedom Foundation, to analyze the results of Idaho’s 2026 primary elections, held one week prior. The conversation covers the governor’s race, federal delegation, state constitutional officers, legislative gains and losses, and the demographic patterns that explain why conservatives won big in 2024 but lost ground in 2026.
The headline number is a net loss of three conservative seats in the legislature. Five of the twelve Freedom Index all-stars — Glenita Zeiderweld, Lucas Kaler, David Levitt, Josh Cole, and Fay Thompson — lost their primaries, all in Magic Valley and southern Idaho districts where establishment spending reached an estimated $800,000 to $1 million. Conservative pickups partially offset the losses: Scott Herndon defeated Jim Woodward in the north, Jane Souder won against Mark Souder, and Colton Bennett secured the nomination for Lori McCann’s vacated seat. But the net math is minus one in the Senate and minus two in the House.
Nate presents a demographic model explaining the pattern: the weakest counties for conservatives share three features — high ag industry influence, large non-citizen populations that inflate the voting power of establishment-aligned citizens, and low in-migration from California, Oregon, and Washington. Northern Idaho, which has the inverse profile, continues to hold conservative seats durably. Nate frames the 2024 conservative sweep of the Magic Valley as an anomaly where the establishment was caught off-guard, and the 2026 results as the correction once hundreds of thousands in special interest money flooded those same races.
The conversation also addresses the governor’s race — Brad Little won with 59%, but challenger Mark Fitzpatrick’s 28.7% as a relative unknown signals significant Republican dissatisfaction — and the fact that all six constitutional officers ran unchallenged. Neugebauer notes that five of those officers endorsed a state senator who blocked immigration bills, raising questions about the administration’s direction. The episode closes with a discussion of property tax elimination, where Nate argues Idaho could phase out its $2.3 billion property tax within seven years using natural revenue growth without raising other taxes.
0:01 Introduction and Constitutional Officers’ Endorsement Controversy
Bob Neugebauer opens by framing the primary election results as unexpected and introduces the theme of Idaho’s continuing leftward drift. The conversation immediately turns to five constitutional officers who endorsed a state senator accused of blocking three immigration bills and supporting driver’s licenses for undocumented immigrants. Nate singles out the Secretary of State’s involvement as unprecedented and raises the conflict-of-interest problem: the official who certifies elections has now taken sides in legislative races, undermining public confidence in the resolution of any future close or disputed election.
3:19 The Governor’s Race: Brad Little’s 59% and the Fitzpatrick Signal
Neugebauer highlights Mark Fitzpatrick’s 28.7% showing against Governor Brad Little as the highest primary challenge performance from a relative unknown. Nate frames it differently: 40% of Idaho Republicans voted against the sitting governor, and much of Fitzpatrick’s support represents a no-confidence vote rather than name recognition. They walk through the rest of the top of the ticket — Jim Risch winning the Senate nomination with 67%, Russ Fulcher cruising in the 1st Congressional District, and Mike Simpson again exceeding 60% in the 2nd District despite voting records Nate characterizes as consistently un-Republican, including TARP, Cash for Clunkers, and dam removal advocacy.
7:48 Unchallenged Constitutional Officers and the Power of Incumbency
Nate notes that every constitutional officer — Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, State Controller, State Treasurer, Attorney General, and Superintendent of Public Instruction — ran unchallenged in the Republican primary. He questions whether this reflects satisfaction or resignation and points out that Debbie Critchfield and Scott Bedke received noticeably fewer votes than fellow incumbents, suggesting selective abstention by dissatisfied Republican voters. Neugebauer attributes the lack of challengers to the financial and institutional power of the ag industry and IACI, which he argues have controlled the state for 20 years.
11:25 Legislative Results: Five All-Stars Lost, Net Minus Three
Nate delivers the core legislative results: of the 12 Freedom Index all-stars, 8 belonged to the so-called Gang of Eight, and 5 of those 8 lost their primaries — Glenita Zeiderweld, Lucas Kaler, David Levitt, Josh Cole, and Fay Thompson. Tanya Burgoyne, a B-range legislator in southeastern Idaho, also lost. Conservative pickups came from Scott Herndon defeating Jim Woodward, Jane Souder defeating Mark Souder, and Colton Bennett winning the nomination for Lori McCann’s vacated seat. The net result is minus one in the Senate and minus two in the House, which Nate describes as a baby step backward after two election cycles of significant conservative gains.
13:31 The Demographic Formula: Why Conservatives Win Up North and Lose in the Magic Valley
Nate presents a three-variable model explaining which districts elect conservatives and which don’t. Conservative districts have high in-migration from California, Oregon, and Washington — people fleeing liberal governance — low non-citizen populations, and low ag industry influence. Districts 1, 2, 3, 23, and 31 in northern Idaho fit this profile. The weakest districts for conservatives — 26, 27 in the Magic Valley and 9 in far western Idaho — have the inverse: high illegal immigration that inflates establishment voting power because non-citizens don’t vote but are counted in district apportionment, plus heavy ag industry presence. Nate frames the 2024 conservative sweep of the Magic Valley as the establishment being caught asleep, and 2026 as the correction once $800,000 to $1 million flooded those races.
20:18 The Special Interest Spending Pipeline: From COVID Funds to Campaign Dollars
Nate describes what he calls a filtration system: special interests spend heavily on establishment candidates because those candidates, once elected, direct hundreds of millions in state spending back toward the healthcare, ag, and insurance industries. He uses St. Luke’s as an example — spending hundreds of thousands on campaigns is a rational investment when it secures hundreds of millions in Medicaid and healthcare appropriations. The $11 billion in federal COVID spending over five years has amplified this cycle, converting government healthcare dollars into higher campaign spending to maintain the funding pipeline. Neugebauer adds that hospital-based outpatient clinics are now charging patients thousands for visits that previously cost $300.
24:31 Property Tax Elimination and the “How Will You Replace It?” Litmus Test
Neugebauer pivots to Idaho’s high housing prices and asks what property tax elimination would do for affordability. Nate notes that Idaho collects $2.3 billion in property taxes annually, and that the tax is rolled into mortgage qualification calculations, directly limiting who can afford a home. He outlines a seven-year phase-out plan using natural revenue growth without raising other taxes. The most revealing moment comes when Nate describes posting about property tax elimination online and receiving pushback not from Democrats but from self-identified conservatives asking “how will we replace that tax?” — a question he argues reveals an unconscious leftward shift in assumptions, where government spending is treated as inherently justified and any reduction requires replacement rather than simply being cut.
29:00 National Frustrations, Idaho’s Crossroads, and Colorado’s Potential Turning Point
Neugebauer asks whether the leftward drift reflects a generational attitude shift, and the conversation briefly touches on national frustrations — gas prices above $4 instead of the promised $2, continued international entanglements, and unmet expectations. Nate draws the parallel between Idaho’s current population of just over 2 million and the colonial population of the 13 colonies in 1775, framing Idaho as being at a crossroads between maintaining conservative governance and following Colorado’s trajectory. Neugebauer offers a counterpoint of hope, noting that a conservative Republican gubernatorial candidate in Colorado could represent a turning point for a state he watched turn blue 25 years ago. Both close by debating whether in-migration from California, Oregon, and Washington truly brings conservative voters or simply relocates liberal ones
